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Tel: +1 (905) 415-9267 or +350 200 400 48

The widening divide between Have and Have-Nots

23rd Jul, 2015back

The-widening-divideWhile we can see from an array of economic indicators that US property is undoubtedly in recovery mode. For property owners that is good news indeed. However many commentators are pointing toward what they see as to an ever increasing divide developing between the have and the have-nots.

Property ownership in the U.S. has spiraled down to a twenty year low as many Americans, mostly younger, are simply locked out from owning a home. Despite the upbeat news from the National Association of Realtors that May pending home sales was at its highest level since April 2006. The reality is that in the first quarter of 2015, according to CoreLogic, 5.1m mortgaged houses were in negative equity. The issue is more heavily concentrated in poorer neighbourhoods, which underlines the deeply divided fortunes now typifying the housing market.

It would seem that the current housing recovery is showing a split personality or in the words of Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic, “a lopsided one”. The housing crash created a number of changes. There has been a tightening up of lending standards, a fall in the rate of home ownership, down to 64% last year, and a heavy shift to renting. Mix into that the lack of real income growth and it not hard to see how the divide is widening

Khater agrees: “The property market is strengthening, but it’s a complex picture that’s by no means good news for all Americans.”

On one side of the divide we see that rising values are pushing up equity in the housing market, with low interest rates helping those who can qualify for home loans. On the other side with construction remaining depressed many households are suffering from the tightness of supply through surging rents that are putting severe pressure on many household budgets.

There isn’t much better news for those looking to enter the housing market at a lower level to get away from renting. It seems that investor interest in these properties has increased their values. “While there generally isn’t a lot of inventory anywhere, inventory of for-sale homes at lower prices is especially scarce,” said Leonard Carl Kiefer, economic research director at Freddie Mac. Investor demand for rental property has “put more upward pressure on lower-priced homes relative to higher-priced homes”.

There are crumbs of comfort in that new homes construction activity has grown. There are also signs of more new entrants into the property market, with the share of first-timers rising bringing new blood on to the market.

David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, said, “As mortgage underwriting standards become more “reasonable” and as the economy strengthens, builders will react and “affordable homes will be available.”

Between 1976 and 2006 the value of building plots in Florida rose from an average of $15,000 to $250,000

The Lincoln Institute of Land Policy